Clik here to view.
Time for a pause in the bulls' charge
Mid-week market update: Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish, but the stock market rally appear a little extended in the short run and due for a brief period of consolidation. The SPX broke out from...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The canary in the credit crunch coalmine
Historically, every recession has been accompanied by an equity bear market.One characteristic of every recession has been a credit crunch. As the economy slows, banks react by tightening their lending...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Trade war jitters fade, but for how long?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Don't miss the eurozone revival!
Remember my post, Opportunity from Brexit turmoil? I suggested on February 22, 2018 that we were seeing a setup for a long trade in UK equities. Brexit political chaos was reaching a crescendo, and...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Is good news now good news, or bad news?
Mid-week market update: What should we make of the stock market now that the 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 3% level? Should we pay attention to the JPM Asset Management historical analysis...
View ArticleClik here to view.
How much does 3% matter to stocks?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Still choppy, still consolidating
Mid-week market update: Stock prices are still consolidating sideways. The technical pattern could either be described as range-bound, or as a triangle. The market tested the bottom of the triangle...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Why I am not ready to call a market top
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Why you shouldn't get wedded to any market indicator
Over the years, I have had a number of discussions with traders who have religiously embraced specific trading systems and investment disciplines. This is a cautionary tale of how systems fail.Charlie...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The bulls are back in town
Mid-week market update: In my last mid-week market update (see Still choppy, still consolidating), I highlighted the weekly (unscientific) sentiment survey conducted by Callum Thomas. The poll showed...
View ArticleClik here to view.
How I learned to stop worrying and love rising rates
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Tame inflation? Don't get complacent!
The Treasury market rallied last week when the 10-year Treasury yield tested the 3% level and pulled back.The decline in yields (and bond prices rally) was not a big surprise for a number of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Market waves and ripples
Mid-week market update: Charles Dow once characterized the stock market`s price movement as being composed of tides, waves, and ripples. We can see a mini version of this thesis by the market's action...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Deconstructing the institutional pain trade
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The struggling Canadian canary
Back in March, I wrote about the new Fragile Five, which were five highly leveraged developed market economies that were undergoing property booms. The five countries are Australia, Canada, New...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Bear markets simply don't start this way
Mid-week market update: There remains a fair amount of stock market skittishness among my readers and on my social media feed. Let me assure everyone that bear markets simply don`t start this...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Cue the fiscal and inflation fears
Was the recent big tax cut not enough? CNBC reported that President Trump is proposing further tax cuts before November. He went on to pressure Congress to enact funding for his budget priorities on...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Could a weak consumer stall the economy?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Offbeat Thursday and Friday forecasts
Brett Steenberger recently warned that traders about trading on noise, which is advice to which I wholeheartedly agree:In other words, before we can determine whether or not we have an edge (in...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The hidden MACD message from the market
Mid-week market update: Callum Thomas conducts a regular weekly (unscientific) Twitter poll of equity market sentiment, and the latest results show that both fundamental and technical bullishness are...
View Article
